Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.231062 0.273284 0.318352 0.369761 0.426504 0.486959 0.555972
2024-10-27 0.177169 0.234497 0.300078 0.379541 0.472124 0.575555 0.698798
2024-11-03 0.139820 0.206340 0.287521 0.391252 0.517704 0.664437 0.845142
2024-11-10 0.111682 0.183661 0.277132 0.402482 0.561426 0.751829 0.992691
2024-11-17 0.084151 0.156121 0.256021 0.396751 0.582184 0.811096 1.107901
2024-11-24 0.066478 0.138615 0.245169 0.401951 0.615404 0.885527 1.242800
2024-12-01 0.049965 0.119003 0.228147 0.396170 0.632543 0.938993 1.352083
2024-12-08 0.035378 0.098634 0.206618 0.381090 0.634952 0.972148 1.435231
2024-12-15 0.028276 0.089925 0.201805 0.389315 0.668966 1.046905 1.572785
2024-12-22 0.020313 0.076819 0.187528 0.381350 0.678772 1.088676 1.667408
2024-12-29 0.017260 0.073682 0.190014 0.399422 0.726487 1.182648 1.832355
2025-01-05 0.012907 0.065611 0.182163 0.399789 0.747495 1.239810 1.948737
2025-01-12 0.009504 0.058665 0.175645 0.402192 0.772214 1.303713 2.077008
2025-01-19 0.007508 0.055011 0.175137 0.414632 0.812555 1.390448 2.237843
2025-01-26 0.005960 0.052009 0.175479 0.428360 0.855101 1.480989 2.405167
2025-02-02 0.004648 0.049037 0.175381 0.441101 0.896287 1.570209 2.571891
2025-02-09 0.002926 0.042448 0.165778 0.435487 0.907594 1.615972 2.678670
2025-02-16 0.002012 0.038815 0.162522 0.441321 0.937332 1.688990 2.824322
2025-02-23 0.001114 0.033413 0.153605 0.435341 0.947064 1.732257 2.928350
2025-03-02 0.000442 0.027056 0.140375 0.419368 0.938994 1.748245 2.993389
2025-03-09 0.000251 0.025141 0.139413 0.428206 0.973146 1.828303 3.150783
2025-03-16 0.000069 0.021042 0.130623 0.419749 0.976889 1.861829 3.241387
2025-03-23 0.000042 0.020883 0.134642 0.439046 1.029594 1.971213 3.442850